Thursday, 29 August 2013

US Open - Second Round

Elina Svitolina opened up at between 4/9 and 8/15 for her second round match with American Christina McHale which was the right price in The Overrule's estimation at 8/15. Svitolina is now available at 8/13 which presents an opportunity for us to extract some value on the talented Ukrainian.

Svitolina is the only teenager on tour to win a title this year and has been highly touted by The Overrule since early in the year. The pair met last year on clay where McHale prevailed but while the American's career has stagnated, Svitolina is getting better by the week and month.

In first round action Svitolina defeated Dominika Cibulkova in straight sets and McHale did likewise against Julia Goerges who has been hopeless all season.

The Overrule advises a three point selection on Svitolina at 8/13 with Winner, who void retirements, which is our preferred rule on match betting selections.

3* Elina Svitolina beat Christina McHale at 8/13 (Winner)

Saturday, 24 August 2013

US Open - Men & Women

Over the past few weeks The Overrule has locked in a few outright selections as follows;

2* Juan Martin del Potro 33/1 - current best price 16/1.

4* Novak Djokovic 15/8 - current best price 9/4.

3* Victoria Azarenka (each-way) 5/1 (1/2 odds 1-2 places) - current best price 7/2 win only market, 3/1 each-way market.

Following the draw here are further selections The Overrule believes represents value in specials markets.

5* Rafael Nadal to reach the men's final at 10/11 (Coral)

1* Jerzy Janowicz win men's third quarter at 4/1 (Coral)

2* Simona Halep win women's third quarter at 11/2 (BWIN)

5* Serena Williams/Victoria Azarenka women's final at 6/5 (BWIN)

Weekly Overview (20)

Weekly performance - Stake: 9.00 Profit/Loss: -9.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 264.50 Profit/Loss: +19.32 ROI: 7.30%

Thursday, 22 August 2013

WTA New Haven (II)

Caroline Wozniacki, queen of New Haven, meets Sloane Stephens in the last eight tonight and The Overrule believes the Dane has been significantly overvalued. This match is far closer to a 50/50 battle than the prices suggest. Aside from the fact that Stephens generally tends to play well against "names" on tour.

Wozniacki wasn't particularly impressive yesterday against Karin Knapp, consistently being hit off court during prolonged periods of the second set. The former world number one appeared to be struggling with some kind of illness, taking a medical time-out mid-way through the second set.

Stephens overcame Julia Goerges in three sets last night having gone walkabout during the second set. Stephens took a fall during the first set but appeared to be unscathed despite mentioning her wrist to her coach. She didn't take a medical time-out to have it treated at any stage of the match, so we can believe that it's unlikely to be anything significant. 

The Overrule would be surprised if this price doesn't offer some in-play trading material and a routine straight sets victory for Wozniacki is definitely not on the cards.

3* Sloane Stephens beat Caroline Wozniacki at 11/8 (Bet 365)

Sunday, 18 August 2013

WTA New Haven

A healthy field in New Haven with 4 of the top 10 and 9 of the top 20 set to compete. There are many individual story lines in this field but that would be for an article on Second Serve Ace - unfortunately, I don't have the time at the moment to write that story.

As far as the pricing is concerned two of the Russians - Ekaterina Makarova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - are considerably overpriced in a field where The Overrule wouldn't like to be backing anyone at single digits in the outright market for a variety of reasons.

Sorana Cirstea continues to be overvalued due to her run in Toronto. As many of you are aware opposing Cirstea and Julia Goerges as favorites has often provided plenty of value and a high frequency of winners to match. We're happy to oppose Cirstea with Pavlyuchenkova. Cirstea, Goerges and Sabine Lisicki are players to look to oppose at the US Open if the price is right which it might very well be.

1* Ekaterina Makarova win New Haven (each-way) at 33/1 (Betfred) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

1* Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova win New Haven (each-way) at 50/1 (Paddy Power) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

4* Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova beat Sorana Cirstea at 6/4 (Bet Victor)

ATP Winston Salem

There are question marks over the top three favorites with Tomas Berdych and John Isner having had deep runs in Cincinnati, while Gael Monfils is returning from an ankle injury that he says is still not 100%. There is potential for a big price to come through the top half of the draw but our focus is on the bottom half.

The Overrule advises one point each-way on Andreas Seppi at 20/1.

1* Andreas Seppi win Winston Salem (each-way) at 20/1 (Bet 365) (each-way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Weekly Overview (19)

Weekly performance - Stake: 8.00 Profit/Loss: -2.51 ROI: -31.38%

Season performance - Stake: 255.50 Profit/Loss: +28.32 ROI: 11.08%

Tuesday, 13 August 2013

WTA Cincinnati (II)

Bet 365 have created a "who will go furthest?" market for Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova who both take their place in the bottom half of the draw. The two players are set to meet in the last four where Azarenka should be favored to win. Sharapova hasn't played since Wimbledon with a hip injury while Azarenka withdrew from Toronto last week with a back injury having lost in the final of Carlsbad to Sam Stosur.

All things being equal the price should be tilted in Azarenka's favor and not split. On current form there is no discernible threat to either in their quarter of the draw and providing health is not an issue we should expect to see the rivalry between the two continue later in the week. If both players exit the tournament at the same stage the selection is void. Three points on Azarenka at 5/6.

3* Victoria Azarenka to go further than Maria Sharapova in Cincinnati at 5/6 (Bet 365)

WTA Cincinnati

Not much time for write-ups today but there are three selections The Overrule believes are overpriced on today's WTA card in Cincinnati.

2* Daniela Hanutuchova beat Andrea Petkovic at 9/4 (Bet 365)

3* Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova beat Jamie Hampton at 11/8 (Bet Victor)

2* Yanina Wickmayer beat Sorana Cirstea at 9/5 (Bet Victor)

Sunday, 11 August 2013

Weekly Overview (18)

Petra Kvitova defeated Carlsbad champion Sam Stosur in straight sets at EVS and went off as favorite for the match in Toronto. The next day Kvitova produced an awful display against Sorana Cirstea in the last eight with a winner/unforced error ratio that almost hit 1:5. Cirstea, as big as 400/1 in win only markets and 300/1 in each-way markets, plays in the final later today against pre-tournament favorite and world number one Serena Williams.

Weekly performance - Stake: 3.00 Profit/Loss: 3.00 ROI: 100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 247.50 Profit/Loss: +30.83 ROI: 12.46%

Thursday, 8 August 2013

WTA Toronto

Petra Kvitova and Sam Stosur meet in Toronto for a place in the last eight and The Overrule believes the prices are the wrong way around. Stosur is in her best run of form of the season having won Carlsbad last week where she defeated Agnieszka Radwanska and Victoria Azarenka, but tiredness has to be a factor at this point. The Australian has been taken to three sets on back to back nights by Julia Glushko and Carla Suarez-Navarro and a slow start against Kvitova should prove far more problematic for her.

Kvitova won Montreal this time last year with the Canadian event alternating to Toronto this year. The Czech took out home favorite Genie Bouchard last night in straight sets and looked in her best physical condition of the season. Kvitova has a 4-1 head to head with Stosur and is 3-0 on hard court. The Overrule will back Kvitova with three points at EVS.

3* Petra Kvitova beat Sam Stosur at EVS (Boylesports)

Monday, 5 August 2013

Weekly Overview (17)

Victoria Azarenka lost out in the final of Carlsbad to Sam Stosur in a surprisingly one sided encounter. Azarenka's cumulative match price for the tournament ended up being a touch over 4/5 (1.84) which is in the region of where The Overrule suggested the outright price should have been on the now world number two. 

Weekly performance - Stake: 5.00 Profit/Loss: -5.00 ROI: -100.00%

Season performance - Stake: 244.50 Profit/Loss: +27.83 ROI: 11.38%